“June Is Bustin’ Out All Over” is a signature song in the 1945 Rodgers and Hammerstein musical “Carousel.” In the show, after a harsh winter and a blustery spring, the weather has finally burst forth into a blossoming warmth, and things look great.
Too bad the sixth month has a stormy history for the stock market, especially in a midterm election year. After all, investors have been knocked around a lot lately and could use some relief.
In mid-term years, such as 2022, June has been the worst performer since 1950, according to Ryan Detrick, the guru of calendar-oriented stock patterns. Average return for June, using the S&P 500 and its predecessor: negative 1.8%. “June is historically a weak month,” writes Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, in a research note.
June also is one of the worst, although different measurements give the dubious distinction of the absolute worst to September, with August a close second. One explanation for June’s perennial bum showing is that many institutional investors are vacationing then. Regardless, the month no doubt figures into the old saying: “Sell in May and go away.”
But here’s the strange part: Over the past 10 years, June has done fairly well, ranking fourth behind No. 1 November, No. 2 April and No. 3 July. Why this has happened is anyone’s guess.
“After the big bounce in late May, we wouldn’t be surprised at all if this recent strength continued into a…
